Research

Identifying what predicts different outcomes after high school, and the practices that make these outcomes possible.

Context

Autistic young adults experience lower rates of postsecondary education and employment compared to the general population. These disparities are visible in national data and reflect systemic challenges in transition planning and support.

National data from the American Community Survey for all people and people with disabilities, paired with ATTAIN research on autistic people, illustrate the scope of these disparities:

Selected Post-School Outcome Disparities

Selected post-school outcome disparities
Outcome All People People with Disabilities Autistic People
Postsecondary education completion 65.5% 50.6% 27.9%
Employment 77.0% 45.0% 38.9%

These differences underscore the importance of identifying which in-school experiences and skills improve outcomes after high school.

ATTAIN examines how predictors and practices shape what happens after high school across diverse educational contexts in the United States.

Autism identification continues to increase. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated prevalence at 1 in 31 eight-year-old children in 2022.

ATTAIN’s screening of a nationally representative sample identified an autism incidence rate of approximately 2.73%.

In the 2023–2024 school year, 13.37% of autistic students ages 5 to 18 were served under the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act (IDEA).

Together, these data points demonstrate both increasing identification and persistent outcome disparities, reinforcing the need for research-informed transition planning.

Our Focus

ATTAIN focuses on two interconnected components of transition.

1

Transition Predictors

Predictors are in-school experiences, including learning specific skills and being offered opportunities, that research has linked to improved outcomes after high school.

2

Effective Transition Practices

Effective Transition Practices are instructional approaches that intentionally build those skills.

Together, Predictors and Practices can influence outcomes, such as in the following commonly researched areas:

  • Education and training
  • Employment
  • Independent living and community participation

This framework allows ATTAIN to connect outcome data with practical implementation, ensuring that research findings translate into instructional strategies educators can apply.

What Are Predictors?

Research has identified 23 experiences and skills of post-school success for students with disabilities. ATTAIN has examined these predictors within two samples of autistic youth.

Predictors fall into four domains identified by the National Technical Assistance Center on Transition: The Collaborative (NTACT:C):

Policy

System-level structures that shape opportunity, such as diploma status and inclusion in general education.

Career Development

Experiences that prepare students for the workforce, including career technical education and paid work experience.

Supportive and Collaborative Systems

Family and system supports, including parent or family expectations and interagency collaboration.

Student Skills

Skills directly related to independence and self-advocacy, including goal setting, social skills, travel skills, and psychological empowerment.

Career Awareness
Learning about opportunities, education, and skills needed in various occupational pathways to choose a career that matches one’s strengths and interests.
Career Technical Education
A sequence of courses that prepares students for a specific job or career at various levels from trade or craft positions to technical, business, or professional careers.
Community Experiences
Activities occurring outside of the school setting, supported with in-class instruction, where students apply academic, social, and work behaviors and skills.
Exit Exam Requirements / High School Diploma Status
Standardized state exit exams and completion of required curriculum credits necessary to obtain a diploma.
Goal Setting
Teaching students to define goals, identify current status, develop action plans, and evaluate progress toward preferred outcomes.
Inclusion in General Education
Access to general education curriculum and participation in regular education classes with peers without disabilities, typically at least 80 percent of the time.
Interagency Collaboration
Cross-agency coordination leading to tangible transition outcomes for youth.
Occupational Courses
Courses that support career awareness and allow students to explore career pathways and develop occupational-specific skills.
Paid Employment / Work Experience
Paid employment or authentic workplace activities including job shadowing, internships, apprenticeships, and work sampling.
Parent Expectations
Family members planning and articulating expectations for inclusive postsecondary education and employment.
Parental Involvement
Families actively participating in all aspects of transition planning.
Program of Study
An individualized set of courses and experiences aligned with post-school goals.
Psychological Empowerment
Belief in the relationship between one’s actions and outcomes experienced.
Self-Care / Independent Living
Skills necessary for personal management, daily living, financial management, and healthcare.
Self-Determination / Self-Advocacy
Ability to make choices, solve problems, set goals, evaluate options, and advocate for oneself.
Self-Realization
Understanding one’s strengths and support needs.
Social Skills
Behaviors and attitudes that facilitate communication and cooperation.
Student Support
A network of people providing services and resources to prepare students for post-school goals.
Technology Skills
Computer competence and related technical skills.
Transition Program
Programs designed to prepare students for movement from secondary settings to adult life.
Travel Skills
Ability to travel independently outside the home.
Work Study
A sequence of work skills instruction and experiences integrating academic and vocational instruction.
Youth Autonomy / Decision-Making
Acting in relation to one’s own interests and preferences and selecting among potential solutions using problem-solving skills.

Predictors References

Alverson, C. Y., Reardon, K., Howard, C. D., Wiebe, G., Fowler, C. H., Rowe, D. A., & Mazzotti, V. L. (2025). Operationalizing Predictors of Postschool Success in Secondary Transition: A Delphi Study. Career Development and Transition for Exceptional Individuals, 48(4), 233-246.

Haber, M. G., Mazzotti, V. L., Mustian, A. L., Rowe, D. A., Bartholomew, A. L., Test, D. W., & Fowler, C. H. (2016). What works, when, for whom, & with whom: A meta-analytic review of predictors of postsecondary success for students with disabilities. Review of Educational Research.

Mazzotti, V. L., Rowe, D. A., Sinclair, J., Poppen, M., Woods, W. E., & Shearer, M. L. (2016). Predictors of post-school success: A systematic review of NLTS-2 secondary analyses. Career Development and Transition for Exceptional Individuals, 39(4), 196–215.

Mazzotti, V. L., Rowe, D. A., Kwiatek, S., Voggt, A., Chang, W-H., Fowler, C. H., Poppen, M., Sinclair, J., & Test, D. W. (2021). Secondary transition predictors of postschool success: An update to the research base. Career Development and Transition for Exceptional Individuals, 44(1), 47-64.

Test, D. W., Mazzotti, V. L., Mustian, A. L., Fowler, C. H., Kortering, L. J., & Kohler, P. H. (2009). Evidence-based secondary transition predictors for improving postschool outcomes for students with disabilities. Career Development for Exceptional Individuals, 32, 160–181.

Project Phases

ATTAIN includes several major phases, each contributing to a broader understanding of transition outcomes.

Phase 1

Analysis of Existing Data

ATTAIN analyzed data from New York State PROMISE, a federally funded initiative focused on improving adult outcomes for youth receiving Supplemental Security Income. This phase examined known predictors within a large sample of autistic youth.

Phase 2

PROMISE Follow-Up Survey

ATTAIN developed and administered a follow-up survey of PROMISE participants to understand which predictors participants experienced in high school and their outcomes in adulthood.

Phase 3

Nationally Representative Survey

ATTAIN designed and implemented a nationally representative survey to examine predictors and outcomes for autistic youth across the United States.

Phase 4

Intervention Research

ATTAIN studies how an evidence-based practice, called the Self-Determined Learning Model of Instruction (SDLMI), was implemented in real educational settings by pre-service teachers. This study involved training and coaching pre-service teachers as they implemented the SDLMI with autistic students in their practicum and student teaching placements. The purpose was to enhance knowledge and skills in transition and effective practices for teachers entering the workforce.

Phase 5

Revised and Expanded Nationally Representative Survey

In Phase 5, ATTAIN researchers implement a second nationally representative survey to refine the focus of the Phase 3 survey on high school predictors and explore the college experience for autistic young people.

Phase 6

Exploring the College Experience

Using interviews with autistic college students and recent graduates along with family member focus groups, the ATTAIN research team hopes to better understand the supports available to autistic people in college settings.

Together, these phases allow ATTAIN to examine patterns of outcomes and the practices that shape them.

Key Findings

Predictors Linked to Outcomes

ATTAIN identified seven predictors that were significantly associated with education, employment, independent living, and community participation outcomes. These associations were observed within a large sample of autistic youth and remained significant across multiple outcome domains:

  • Parent (Family) Expectations
  • Career Technical Education
  • Paid Work Experience
  • Goal Setting
  • Psychological Empowerment
  • Social Skills
  • Travel Skills

These findings show that adult success is influenced by their work experiences, families, and personal skill development.

Select statistical examples illustrate how specific predictors are linked to outcomes:

  1. For autistic people, paid work in high school was related to increased odds of working part-time (OR = 9.2, SE = 1.9) after high school.
  2. Higher parent expectations for financial independence were associated with increased odds of high school graduation (OR = 7.8, SE = 3.9) and employment outcomes (OR = 1.9, SE = 0.6).
  3. Setting goals in high school was related to positive outcomes across education, employment, independent living, and community participation.

These findings provide actionable insight for transition planning and policy decisions.

Effective Transition Practices

Effective transition practices are structured instructional approaches shown through research to improve specific skills related to adulthood.

Unlike predictors, which describe experiences linked to outcomes, practices describe how skills are intentionally developed.

The Self-Determined Learning Model of Instruction (SDLMI)

ATTAIN studies the implementation of the Self-Determined Learning Model of Instruction (SDLMI; Shogren et al., 2019), an evidence-based approach designed to strengthen self-determined skills, such as:

  • Goal setting
  • Decision-making
  • Self-advocacy
  • Self-monitoring

Self-determination means engaging in actions to take greater control over your life, such as through setting and working toward goals or making your own choices, with our without the support of others. It’s about becoming the boss of your own life!

The SDLMI guides students through a three-phase process:

  1. Set a goal
  2. Take action
  3. Monitor and adjust progress

The SDLMI is identified as an evidence-based practice for students with intellectual disability, specific learning disability, and emotional behavioral disorders. ATTAIN research adds to the current research basis exploring the self-determination of autistic young people by determining how this model can be implemented effectively by pre-service teachers.

Intervention Research

ATTAIN examines both effectiveness and feasibility.

Research Questions

  • To what extent are pre-service teachers implementing the SDLMI with fidelity?
  • How effective do teachers perceive coaching to be?
  • Is SDLMI feasible within teacher preparation programs?
  • What impact does SDLMI have on student self-determination?

By examining implementation and impact, ATTAIN explores the extent to which implementation of the SDLMI with autistic youth is considered practical, relevant, and useful for pre-service teachers as they enter the special education teacher workforce.

Outcomes

ATTAIN evaluates outcomes in three primary areas:

Education and Training

  • High school completion
  • Postsecondary enrollment and completion
  • Vocational training

Employment

  • Competitive and sustained employment

Independent Living and Community Participation

  • Community engagement
  • Independent living

Featured Publications

Predictors of Postsecondary Education and High School Exit for Autistic Youth

Citation: Brendli Brown, K. R., Enayati, H., & Shaw, L. (2025). Predictors of postsecondary education and high school exit for autistic youth. Career Development and Transition for Exceptional Individuals, 0(0).

Plain Language Summary

This study looked at 19 different experiences and skills in high school to figure out which of these experiences and skills were linked to successfully exiting high school, measured as the completion of a diploma, credential, or certificate of completion, and enrolling in postsecondary education, such as college or university, for autistic young people. Several of these experiences and skills were linked with one or more of these outcomes. For example, high parent expectations were linked to autistic young people successfully exiting high school. As another example, autistic young people who complete household tasks have higher odds of successfully completing high school and participating in postsecondary education.

Predictors of Employment for Autistic Youth

Citation: Brendli Brown, K. R., Shaw, L., & Enayati, H. (2026). Predictors of employment for autistic youth: Initial and follow-up PROMISE survey results. Education and Training in Autism and Developmental Disabilities, 0(0).

Plain Language Summary

Many autistic people have a hard time getting and keeping paid jobs, especially in the first few years after they leave high school. There is not a lot of research available that looks at what experiences and skills are linked to getting a paid job after high school for autistic young people living in poverty. This study found strong links between multiple career development activities, such as having a paid job or work experience while in high school, and student skills, such as making your own decisions, with having a paid job after high school.

Predictors of Life Experiences

Citation: Shaw, L., Brendli Brown, K. R., & Enayati, H. (accepted). Autistic people and life experiences: The role of student skills and support. Frontiers in Psychiatry, 0(0).

Plain Language Summary

Autistic people report lower quality of life in comparison to both people with other disabilities and the general population, particularly when it comes to social functioning. This study found that the most common social experience for autistic youth and adults was falling in love, followed by moving into one’s own home. Whether a person experiences pregnancy, caregiving, falling in love, marriage, independent living, or being arrested is related to how old they are, their gender, and whether they have mental and physical health problems. Having these experiences is also related to skills gained during high school, such as learning to set goals, self-advocacy, doing chores, and persisting with tasks.